← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 61% | 70% | 1.50 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 15% | 4% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 233.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1636.83 | 1517.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.93 | -10.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| league points | 55.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 1.54 |
| state index | 1.03 | -0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |