← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 80% | 97% | 1.12 | value: +8% ⚠ |
| Draw | 13% | 3% | 7.00 | fair |
| Roosendaal win | 6% | 0% | 15.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Roosendaal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1541.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1545.96 | 1307.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.17 | -42.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 40.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.21 |
| state index | 0.09 | -2.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |