← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 38% | 54% | 2.40 | value: +31% ⚠ |
| SC Heerenveen win | 34% | 29% | 2.60 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 17% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 232.00 | 597.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1470.71 | 1559.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.84 | 25.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| league points | 29.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.67 |
| state index | -0.50 | 0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |