← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Fri, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 56% | 59% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 19% | 3.40 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 18% | 23% | 5.00 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2239.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1487.96 | 1655.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.26 | 33.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 33.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 2.50 |
| state index | -0.43 | 1.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |