← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Fri, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 52% | 37% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 34% | 3.40 | value: +17% |
| FC Twente '65 win | 22% | 28% | 4.20 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2361.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1553.26 | 1576.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.60 | 13.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 39.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.29 |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |