← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 45% | 34% | 2.00 | fair |
| NEC win | 28% | 22% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 43% | 3.25 | value: +41% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1546.25 | 1551.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.65 | 30.46 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 36.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.65 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.65 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |