← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 56% | 93% | 1.66 | value: +54% ⚠ |
| Draw | 25% | 2% | 3.60 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 19% | 5% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2052.00 | 1687.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1435.26 | 1743.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.55 | 24.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| league points | 24.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 2.35 |
| state index | -0.51 | 1.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |