← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 56% | 76% | 1.61 | value: +22% ⚠ |
| Draw | 25% | 15% | 3.75 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 19% | 9% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 6435.00 | 1534.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1389.24 | 1538.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -56.78 | -16.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 18.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.61 |
| state index | -1.78 | -0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |