← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk win | 55% | 58% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 19% | 16% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 3147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1505.71 | 1431.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.85 | 3.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 31.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 0.61 |
| state index | -0.86 | -0.56 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |