← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 40% | 32% | 2.25 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 33% | 23% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 45% | 3.30 | value: +47% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2355.00 | 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1496.60 | 1478.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.78 | 15.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 28.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.26 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |