← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 78% | 97% | 1.16 | value: +12% ⚠ |
| Draw | 14% | 2% | 6.50 | fair |
| Heracles win | 8% | 1% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 590.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1872.29 | 1475.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.96 | -3.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| league points | 57.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 1.17 |
| state index | 2.06 | -0.52 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |