← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 49% | 45% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 41% | 3.25 | value: +33% |
| Vitesse win | 23% | 14% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 590.00 | 2233.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1547.47 | 1500.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.39 | 1.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| league points | 37.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.43 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |