← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Wed, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 47% | 46% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 36% | 3.25 | value: +16% |
| Waalwijk win | 25% | 18% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 222.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1524.25 | 1513.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.72 | -29.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 26.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.41 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.65 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |