← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Wed, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 48% | 56% | 1.90 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| NEC win | 25% | 17% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1683.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1558.40 | 1737.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.94 | 23.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 2.31 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| league points | 38.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 2.32 |
| state index | 1.00 | 1.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |