← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Wed, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 42% | 17% | 2.10 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 30% | 14% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 68% | 3.30 | value: +126% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 6431.00 | 2048.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1409.51 | 1415.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.52 | -29.65 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 18.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 0.95 |
| state index | -1.47 | -1.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |