← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Wed, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 73% | 86% | 1.25 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 19% | 7% | 5.00 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 8% | 7% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1530.00 | 3144.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1533.53 | 1400.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.52 | -2.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 34.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 0.64 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.74 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |