← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Tue, Feb 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 70% | 76% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | 5.00 | value: +6% |
| Roosendaal win | 11% | 2% | 8.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roosendaal | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 221.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1320.90 | 1622.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.85 | 24.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| league points | 5.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.23 | 2.23 |
| state index | -2.33 | 0.81 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |