← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 37% | 39% | 2.50 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 37% | 17% | 2.50 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 43% | 3.40 | value: +47% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2349.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1541.36 | 1565.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.11 | 33.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| league points | 22.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.71 |
| state index | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |