← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, May 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 66% | 71% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.50 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 13% | 9% | 7.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre −1.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Lille OSC −1.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 57% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Lassine Sinayoko · AJ Auxerre |
| 40' | 🟨 | Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille OSC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Nathan Ngoy · Lille OSC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Lille OSC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Danny Namaso · AJ Auxerre |
| 81' | 🟨 | Donovan Léon · AJ Auxerre |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lassine Sinayoko · AJ Auxerre |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 289.00 | 320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.59 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1834.04 | 1671.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.42 | 16.82 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.20 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.80 |
| league points | 61.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.44 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | 1.99 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.75 | 25.89 |
| state index | 1.22 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.09 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.59 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.96 | 1.17 |