← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, May 10, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Dechepy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 51% | 55% | 1.85 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 25% | 19% | 3.70 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 3.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais +0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Toulouse FC +0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 57% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Dayann Methalie · Toulouse FC |
| 26' | 🟨 | Aron Dønnum · Toulouse FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Dayann Methalie · Toulouse FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alexis Vossah · Toulouse FC |
| 46' | 🟨 | Mark McKenzie · Toulouse FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Endrick · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 57' | 🟨 | Charlie Cresswell · Toulouse FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Roman Yaremchuk · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 71' | ⚽ | Corentin Tolisso · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 78' | ⚽ | Warren Kamanzi · Toulouse FC |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 20 | Fouls | 9 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.63 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 79' |
| 🟨 |
| Aron Dønnum · Toulouse FC |
| 79' | 🟥 | Aron Dønnum · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 1074.00 | 494.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1714.57 | 1857.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.73 | 36.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| league points | 41.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.00 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.16 | 7.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | 0.44 |
| solidity v1 | -1.59 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 24.14 | 26.48 |
| state index | -0.01 | 1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.56 |