← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, May 10, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient win | 41% | 46% | 2.30 | value: +5% |
| Metz win | 33% | 31% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Metz +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Lorient +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 57% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 43% | 2.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Sadibou Sané · Metz |
| 15' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Faye · FC Lorient |
| 23' | 🟨 | Giorgi Tsitaishvili · Metz |
| 24' | ⚽ | Jean-Victor Makengo · FC Lorient |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jean-Victor Makengo · FC Lorient |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng · FC Lorient |
| 90' | ⚽ | Arthur Avom Ebong · FC Lorient |
| 90' | ⚽ | Noah Cadiou · FC Lorient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| coach days | 282.00 | 708.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1543.70 | 1723.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.07 | 3.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 16.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 8.08 | 8.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | -1.39 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.88 | 25.88 |
| state index | -1.19 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.85 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.53 |