← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, May 10, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 50% | 50% | 1.90 | fair |
| Le Havre AC win | 25% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille +0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Le Havre AC +0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 62% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 38% | 2.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Sofiane Boufal · Le Havre AC |
| 47' | 🟨 | Ayumu Seko · Le Havre AC |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Mason Greenwood · Olympique de Marseille |
| 57' | 🟨 | Yanis Zouaoui · Le Havre AC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Tochukwu Nnadi · Olympique de Marseille |
| 81' | 🟨 | Quinten Timber · Olympique de Marseille |
| 88' | 🟨 | Simon Ebonog · Le Havre AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 20 | Fouls | 22 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Havre AC | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Océane |
| coach days |
| 678.00 |
| 251.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1577.27 | 1710.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.82 | -49.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 32.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 7.25 | 8.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 1.31 |
| solidity v1 | -0.65 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 28.82 | 27.58 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.91 |