← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, May 10, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj Salem
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 37% | 37% | 2.55 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 36% | 31% | 2.63 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Angers SCO +0 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Maxi Oyedele · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 33' | 🟨 | Ismael Doukouré · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Julio Enciso · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 70' | ⚽ | Goduine Koyalipou · Angers SCO |
| 81' | 🟨 | Pierrick Capelle · Angers SCO |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lanroy Machine · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 1166.00 | 282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1599.36 | 1758.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.95 | -49.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| league points | 34.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.16 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 0.30 |
| solidity v1 | -1.33 | -1.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.36 | 22.50 |
| state index | -0.68 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | 1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 2.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 0.91 |