← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, May 3, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: G. Angoula
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 41% | 32% | 2.30 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 32% | 42% | 3.00 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace +0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Toulouse FC +0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Yaya Diémé · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 27' | ⚽ | Samuel Amo-Ameyaw · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 43' | ⚽ | Dayann Methalie · Toulouse FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Dayann Methalie · Toulouse FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Alexis Vossah · Toulouse FC |
| 84' | ⚽ | Emersonn · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aron Dønnum · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 275.00 | 1067.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 3.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1786.04 | 1700.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.45 | -15.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.60 | -0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| league points | 46.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 35.80 |
| rest days | 2.84 | 7.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.77 | -0.82 |
| solidity v1 | -1.17 | -2.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 22.49 | 23.53 |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.48 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.93 | 2.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 0.95 |