← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, May 3, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: E. Wattellier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre win | 53% | 57% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 21% | 17% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| AJ Auxerre −0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 53% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 47% | 2.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Sékou Mara · AJ Auxerre |
| 45' | 🟨 | Amine Sbai · Angers SCO |
| 45' | 🟨 | Amine Sbai · Angers SCO |
| 45' | 🟥 | Amine Sbai · Angers SCO |
| 49' | 🟨 | Bryan Okoh · AJ Auxerre |
| 53' | 🟨 | Pierrick Capelle · Angers SCO |
| 61' | ⚽ | Sékou Mara · AJ Auxerre |
| 67' | ⚽ | Lassine Sinayoko · AJ Auxerre |
| 68' | 🟨 | Lassine Sinayoko · AJ Auxerre |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Goduine Koyalipou · Angers SCO |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 2 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AJ Auxerre | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps |
| 🟨 |
| Carlens Arcus · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 306.00 | 1159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1652.29 | 1610.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.98 | -11.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.85 |
| league points | 25.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 8.09 | 7.93 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | -0.55 |
| solidity v1 | 0.35 | -1.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.32 | 28.45 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 0.95 |