← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, May 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Paradis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 69% | 70% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.75 | value: +5% |
| Le Havre AC win | 11% | 8% | 8.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC −1.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Le Havre AC −1.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 51% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 49% | 2.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Lucas Gourna-Douath · Le Havre AC |
| 29' | ⚽ | Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille OSC |
| 33' | ⚽ | Issa Soumaré · Le Havre AC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Ayumu Seko · Le Havre AC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Thomas Meunier · Lille OSC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Aïssa Mandi · Lille OSC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Issa Soumaré · Le Havre AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 2 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 14 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Le Havre AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 275.00 | 671.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1828.87 | 1621.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.81 | -8.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.20 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| league points | 57.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.84 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.12 | 0.67 |
| solidity v1 | 1.82 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.74 | 28.96 |
| state index | 1.51 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.69 | 1.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.58 |