← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 26, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: M. Vernice
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 56% | 46% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
| Paris FC win | 20% | 30% | 4.75 | value: +41% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC +0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Paris FC +0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 54% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Moustapha Mbow · Paris FC |
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Matías Fernández-Pardo · Lille OSC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Ayyoub Bouaddi · Lille OSC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Lille OSC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Jonathan Ikoné · Paris FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Pierre Lees Melou · Paris FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Pierre Lees Melou · Paris FC |
| 85' | 🟥 | Pierre Lees Melou · Paris FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alimami Gory · Paris FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ilan Kebbal · Paris FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nathan Ngoy |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris FC | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Jean Bouin |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 268.00 |
| 268.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1652.23 | 1762.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 51.77 | 32.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| league points | 38.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 0.95 |
| solidity v1 | -0.01 | 1.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.26 | 27.81 |
| state index | 0.90 | 1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 0.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.58 |