← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 26, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC win | 59% | 57% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.33 | fair |
| Metz win | 19% | 19% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Metz −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Le Havre AC −1 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 49% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 51% | 2.30 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Mbwana Samatta · Le Havre AC |
| 9' | ⚽ | Giorgi Kvilitaia · Metz |
| 13' | ⚽ | Yassine Kechta · Le Havre AC |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Gauthier Hein · Metz |
| 47' | 🟨 | Giorgi Kvilitaia · Metz |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Yanis Zouaoui · Le Havre AC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Jahyann Pandore · Metz |
| 61' | ⚽ | Fodé Doucouré · Le Havre AC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lucas Gourna-Douath · Le Havre AC |
| 85' | ⚽ | Gauthier Hein · Metz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Timothee Pembele · |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Havre AC | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Océane |
| 90' | 🟨 | Simon Ebonog · Le Havre AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 664.00 |
| 268.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1574.58 | 1501.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.15 | -19.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| league points | 30.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.93 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| solidity v1 | -0.14 | -1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 30.44 | 27.62 |
| state index | -0.14 | -1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.14 |