← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 26, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Millot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient win | 44% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 30% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient −0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 54% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 46% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Lucas Høgsberg · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 26' | ⚽ | Noah Cadiou · FC Lorient |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Pablo Pagis · FC Lorient |
| 62' | ⚽ | Sebastian Nanasi · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 71' | 🟨 | Panos Katseris · FC Lorient |
| 73' | 🟨 | Maxi Oyedele · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Nathaniel Adjei · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | ⚽ | Andrew Omobamidele · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade du Moustoir |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 694.00 | 268.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1725.60 | 1787.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.42 | -8.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| league points | 41.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 7.92 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | 1.56 |
| solidity v1 | 0.11 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.45 | 21.59 |
| state index | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 1.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 2.02 |