← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 12, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj Salem
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 42% | 44% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 28% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC +0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Lille OSC +0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 57% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Thomas Meunier · Lille OSC |
| 48' | 🟥 | Mark McKenzie · Toulouse FC |
| 50' | ⚽ | Romain Perraud · Lille OSC |
| 55' | ⚽ | Matías Fernández-Pardo · Lille OSC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Emersonn · Toulouse FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Dayann Methalie · Toulouse FC |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Olivier Giroud · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days | 1046.00 | 254.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.72 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1721.19 | 1809.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.50 | 29.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 66.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 37.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 8.85 | 7.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | 0.35 |
| solidity v1 | 0.06 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.81 | 26.61 |
| state index | 0.41 | 1.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 0.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.40 |