← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 11, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AJ Auxerre win | 50% | 45% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +11% |
| Nantes win | 23% | 23% | 4.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Nantes −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| AJ Auxerre −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 57% | 57% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 13 |
| 0 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps |