← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 22, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: C. Turpin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC win | 45% | 48% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Le Havre AC win | 25% | 21% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Le Havre AC −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 60% | 1.73 | value: +3% |
| Over | 45% | 40% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · Paris FC |
| 33' | ⚽ (og) | Ayumu Seko · Paris FC |
| 55' | 🟥 | Rudy Matondo · Paris FC |
| 61' | ⚽ | Rassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre AC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Simon Ebonog · Le Havre AC |
| 86' | ⚽ | Alimami Gory · Paris FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Godson Kyeremeh · Le Havre AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris FC | Le Havre AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Jean Bouin |
| coach days | 233.00 | 629.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1645.75 | 1630.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.50 | -10.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| league points | 28.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | -0.44 |
| solidity v1 | -1.15 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 27.54 | 29.08 |
| state index | 0.10 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.18 | 1.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.83 |