← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 22, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 51% | 50% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 24% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Lille OSC −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 53% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Nathan Ngoy · Lille OSC |
| 13' | 🟨 | Mason Greenwood · Olympique de Marseille |
| 13' | 🟨 | Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille OSC |
| 13' | 🟨 | Calvin Verdonk · Lille OSC |
| 43' | ⚽ | Ethan Nwaneri · Olympique de Marseille |
| 49' | ⚽ | Thomas Meunier · Lille OSC |
| 86' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| coach days |
| 202.00 |
| 233.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1772.97 | 1719.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.34 | -7.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 69.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.75 |
| league points | 49.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 8.85 | 2.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.74 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | 0.39 | 1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.67 | 27.80 |
| state index | 0.82 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 0.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 0.73 |