← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj Salem
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre win | 42% | 47% | 2.25 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 27% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| AJ Auxerre −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 60% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 40% | 2.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟥 | Donovan Léon · AJ Auxerre |
| 24' | ⚽ | Bryan Okoh · AJ Auxerre |
| 42' | 🟨 | Michel Diaz · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 57' | 🟨 | Junior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 58' | ⚽ | Bryan Okoh · AJ Auxerre |
| 65' | 🟨 | Joris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 70' | ⚽ | Danny Namaso · AJ Auxerre |
| 72' | 🟨 | Pathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AJ Auxerre | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps |
| coach days |
| 263.00 |
| 1175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1584.64 | 1695.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.70 | 24.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.77 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| league points | 19.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 36.00 |
| rest days | 7.93 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| solidity v1 | 0.24 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.54 | 27.41 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | -1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.79 | 1.13 |