← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 15, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: G. Angoula
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 49% | 47% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.40 | value: +9% |
| Metz win | 24% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Metz +0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Toulouse FC +0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 50% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 50% | 2.20 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Aron Dønnum · Toulouse FC |
| 14' | ⚽ | Yann Gboho · Toulouse FC |
| 30' | ⚽ | Nathan Mbala · Metz |
| 31' | ⚽ | Koffi Kouao · Metz |
| 34' | 🟨 | Alexis Vossah · Toulouse FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Yann Gboho · Toulouse FC |
| 88' | ⚽ | Giorgi Abuashvili · Metz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emersonn · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Warren Kamanzi · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mario Sauer · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 17 | Shots | 19 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.08 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| coach days | 226.00 | 1018.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 3.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1563.52 | 1708.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.40 | -42.67 |
| eye test v1 | -1.14 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| league points | 13.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 7.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.52 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | 0.46 |
| solidity v1 | -0.48 | 0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.96 | 25.13 |
| state index | -1.15 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.69 | 1.45 |