← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Fri, Mar 6, 07:45 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 68% | 75% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.25 | fair |
| AS Monaco FC win | 14% | 8% | 7.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AS Monaco FC −1.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC −1.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 70% | 68% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 32% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.