← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 1, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient win | 45% | 49% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 25% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| AJ Auxerre −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 60% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 40% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Marvin Senaya · AJ Auxerre |
| 19' | ⚽ | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng · FC Lorient |
| 20' | 🟨 | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng · FC Lorient |
| 24' | ⚽ | Josué Casimir · AJ Auxerre |
| 29' | 🟨 | Danny Namaso · AJ Auxerre |
| 29' | ⚽ | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng · FC Lorient |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lassine Sinayoko · AJ Auxerre |
| 54' | 🟨 | Marvin Senaya · AJ Auxerre |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.16 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade du Moustoir |
| coach days |
| 638.00 |
| 243.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1674.08 | 1581.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.36 | 2.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 32.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 0.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | -0.68 |
| solidity v1 | -0.18 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 26.81 | 25.90 |
| state index | 0.69 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 0.73 |