← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj Salem
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC win | 40% | 40% | 2.40 | fair |
| OGC Nice win | 33% | 29% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC +0 | 55% | 1.73 |
| OGC Nice +0 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 47% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 53% | 2.00 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Kevin Carlos Omoruyi · OGC Nice |
| 22' | 🟨 | Pierre Lees Melou · Paris FC |
| 26' | ⚽ | Marshall Munetsi · Paris FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Adama Camara · Paris FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Thibault De Smet · Paris FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ciro Immobile · Paris FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Kaïl Boudache · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thibault De Smet · Paris FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Trapp · Paris FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Thibault De Smet · Paris FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mohamed-Ali Cho · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris FC | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Jean Bouin |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 212.00 |
| 212.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1584.59 | 1617.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.47 | -15.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 48.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| league points | 23.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.83 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| solidity v1 | -1.01 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.09 | 27.82 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.27 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.18 | 1.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.64 |