← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 22, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 44% | 45% | 2.15 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| FC Lorient −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 44% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 56% | 2.05 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Tom Louchet · OGC Nice |
| 29' | 🟨 | Sofiane Diop · OGC Nice |
| 45' | ⚽ | Tom Louchet · OGC Nice |
| 45' | ⚽ | Pablo Pagis · FC Lorient |
| 59' | ⚽ | Kaïl Boudache · OGC Nice |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng · FC Lorient |
| 84' | 🟨 | Panos Katseris · FC Lorient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Melvin Bard · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Darlin Yongwa · FC Lorient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Montassar Talbi · FC Lorient |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| ⚽ |
| Noah Cadiou · FC Lorient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 205.00 | 631.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1665.24 | 1717.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.27 | 45.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 23.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 6.85 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| solidity v1 | -0.29 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.04 | 26.73 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 0.99 |