← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 22, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Pignard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 40% | 44% | 2.38 | value: +6% |
| Le Havre AC win | 32% | 26% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Nantes −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 61% | 1.73 | value: +5% |
| Over | 45% | 39% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (og) | Yanis Zouaoui · Nantes |
| 14' | 🟨 | Fabien Centonze · Nantes |
| 32' | 🟨 | Lucas Gourna-Douath · Le Havre AC |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Ignatius Ganago · Nantes |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ali Youssef · Nantes |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nicolas Cozza · Nantes |
| 78' | 🟨 | Dehmaine Tabibou · Nantes |
| 82' | 🟨 | Yassine Kechta · Le Havre AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enzo Koffi · Le Havre AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Le Havre AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 174.00 | 601.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1570.17 | 1652.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.99 | 28.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.79 |
| league points | 14.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 8.84 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -0.48 |
| solidity v1 | 0.32 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.08 | 29.14 |
| state index | -0.85 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 0.88 |