← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Millot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 47% | 53% | 2.00 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
| Paris FC win | 24% | 19% | 3.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Toulouse FC −0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 57% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Dayann Methalie · Toulouse FC |
| 39' | ⚽ | Marshall Munetsi · Paris FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Diego Coppola · Paris FC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ilan Kebbal · Paris FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Kevin Trapp · Paris FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Otavio · Paris FC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Julian Vignolo · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thibault De Smet · Paris FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days | 996.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1728.20 | 1619.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.25 | 5.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| league points | 30.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 6.17 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| solidity v1 | 0.46 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.85 | 27.75 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 0.90 |