← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 15, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: M. Bollengier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre win | 37% | 40% | 2.55 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Metz win | 31% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Metz +0.25 | 56% | 1.68 |
| AJ Auxerre +0.25 | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 63% | 1.67 | value: +5% |
| Over | 43% | 37% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ (og) | Sadibou Sané · AJ Auxerre |
| 6' | 🟨 | Koffi Kouao · Metz |
| 65' | 🟨 | Lucas Michal · Metz |
| 76' | ⚽ (og) | Urie-Michel Mboula · AJ Auxerre |
| 78' | 🟨 | Josué Casimir · AJ Auxerre |
| 85' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · AJ Auxerre |
| 89' | ⚽ | Kévin Danois · AJ Auxerre |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lassine Sinayoko · AJ Auxerre |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nathan Mbala · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.10 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| coach days | 198.00 | 229.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1551.20 | 1579.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.05 | -11.67 |
| eye test v1 | -1.05 | -1.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| league points | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 8.85 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | -0.46 |
| solidity v1 | -0.92 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| squad age | 26.27 | 25.79 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.69 |