← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 42% | 39% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
| Le Havre AC win | 27% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC +0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Toulouse FC +0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 60% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 40% | 2.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟥 | Arouna Sangante · Le Havre AC |
| 43' | ⚽ | Issa Soumaré · Le Havre AC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Djibril Sidibé · Toulouse FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Cristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Issa Soumaré · Le Havre AC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Guillaume Restes · Toulouse FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Simon Ebonog · Le Havre AC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Dayann Methalie · Toulouse FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Santiago Hidalgo · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lionel Mpasi Nzau · Le Havre AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 25 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 1 | Corners | 10 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Havre AC | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Océane |
| coach days | 594.00 | 990.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1590.13 | 1687.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.12 | -2.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| league points | 23.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.42 |
| solidity v1 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 29.82 | 24.95 |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 0.82 |