← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 14, 08:05 PM UTC · ref: B. Dechepy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 48% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| Paris FC win | 25% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC +0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Racing Club de Lens +0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 54% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 46% | 1.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Wesley Saïd · Racing Club de Lens |
| 38' | ⚽ | Wesley Saïd · Racing Club de Lens |
| 45' | 🟨 | Wesley Saïd · Racing Club de Lens |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Florian Thauvin · Racing Club de Lens |
| 83' | 🟨 | Pierre Lees Melou · Paris FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Rudy Matondo · Paris FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rayan Fofana · Racing Club de Lens |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rayan Fofana · Racing Club de Lens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris FC | Racing Club de Lens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 197.00 | 228.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1592.21 | 1802.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.11 | 17.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| league points | 22.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 6.16 | 7.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 0.83 |
| solidity v1 | 0.65 | 1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 29.01 | 27.21 |
| state index | -0.02 | 1.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.91 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 0.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.71 |