β Ligue 1 2025-26 Β· Sat, Feb 7, 08:05 PM UTC Β· ref: M. Vernice
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 54% | 54% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
| Nantes win | 20% | 21% | 4.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes +0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Olympique Lyonnais +0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 47% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 53% | 1.95 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | π¨ | Endrick Β· Olympique Lyonnais |
| 25' | β½ | Pavel Ε ulc Β· Olympique Lyonnais |
| 37' | π¨ | Kelvin Amian Β· Nantes |
| 61' | π¨ | Endrick Β· Olympique Lyonnais |
| 61' | π₯ | Endrick Β· Olympique Lyonnais |
| 66' | π¨ | Ali Youssef Β· Nantes |
| 76' | π¨ | Dominik Greif Β· Olympique Lyonnais |
| 82' | π¨ | Mohamed Kaba Β· Nantes |
| 90' | π¨ | Matthis Abline Β· Nantes |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.62 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 159.00 | 402.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1527.91 | 1830.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.45 | 34.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.79 |
| league points | 14.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 6.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | 1.04 |
| solidity v1 | -0.20 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.21 | 26.08 |
| state index | -0.70 | 1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 0.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.64 |