← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 1, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: S. Frappart
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 42% | 48% | 2.25 | value: +9% |
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 29% | 23% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| OGC Nice −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 50% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Salis Abdul Samed · OGC Nice |
| 15' | ⚽ (pen) | Romain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 23' | ⚽ | Kamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 33' | 🟨 | Elye Wahi · OGC Nice |
| 42' | 🟨 | Kamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 44' | 🟨 | Remy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 57' | 🟨 | Kojo Peprah Oppong · OGC Nice |
| 63' | ⚽ | Ali Abdi · OGC Nice |
| 65' | 🟨 | Soumaila Coulibaly · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 68' | 🟨 | Charles Vanhoutte · OGC Nice |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| 71' | ⚽ | Elye Wahi · OGC Nice |
| 87' | 🟨 | Hicham Boudaoui · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 184.00 | 1127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 3.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1622.90 | 1656.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.49 | -14.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.59 |
| league points | 21.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 2.84 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -0.51 |
| solidity v1 | -1.08 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.16 | 26.54 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.90 | 1.09 |