← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Dechepy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient win | 50% | 55% | 1.90 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
| Nantes win | 22% | 19% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| FC Lorient −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 62% | 1.73 | value: +7% |
| Over | 45% | 38% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Bamo Meïté · FC Lorient |
| 30' | 🟨 | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng · FC Lorient |
| 32' | ⚽ | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng · FC Lorient |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Sissoko · Nantes |
| 54' | 🟨 | Fabien Centonze · Nantes |
| 74' | ⚽ | Matthis Abline · Nantes |
| 84' | 🟨 | Anthony Lopes · Nantes |
| 85' | 🟨 | Laurent Abergel · FC Lorient |
| 88' | 🟨 | Ali Youssef · Nantes |
| 89' | ⚽ | Arsène Kouassi · FC Lorient |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade du Moustoir |
| 🟨 |
| Arsène Kouassi · FC Lorient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rémy Cabella · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 609.00 | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1672.49 | 1532.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 55.55 | -20.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| league points | 25.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.08 | 6.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 0.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 0.01 |
| solidity v1 | 1.23 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.45 | 26.11 |
| state index | 1.03 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.42 |