← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj Salem
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 36% | 44% | 2.63 | value: +15% |
| Nantes win | 35% | 27% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Nantes +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 46% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 54% | 1.98 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Johann Lepenant · Nantes |
| 16' | ⚽ | Mohamed-Ali Cho · OGC Nice |
| 17' | 🟨 | Ali Abdi · OGC Nice |
| 29' | ⚽ | Mohamed-Ali Cho · OGC Nice |
| 38' | 🟨 | Matthis Abline · Nantes |
| 40' | ⚽ | Sofiane Diop · OGC Nice |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mostafa Mohamed · Nantes |
| 52' | 🟨 | Charles Vanhoutte · OGC Nice |
| 86' | 🟨 | Morgan Sanson · OGC Nice |
| 87' | 🟨 | Bahmed Deuff · Nantes |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| ⚽ |
| Tom Louchet · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 146.00 | 177.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1549.91 | 1616.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.92 | -16.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 2.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | 0.40 |
| solidity v1 | -1.11 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.15 | 25.61 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.85 |