← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 18, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: S. Frappart
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 58% | 58% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.20 | fair |
| Le Havre AC win | 19% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC −1 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 55% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 45% | 2.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Mousa Tamari · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 69' | ⚽ | Felix Mambimbi · Le Havre AC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Kenny Quetant · Le Havre AC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Lionel Mpasi Nzau · Le Havre AC |
| 86' | ⚽ | Breel Embolo · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mbwana Samatta · Le Havre AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Simon Ebonog · Le Havre AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Le Havre AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 170.00 | 566.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1738.49 | 1573.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 52.04 | -3.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 30.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 14.84 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | -0.24 |
| solidity v1 | -0.40 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.62 | 29.33 |
| state index | 1.06 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.31 |