← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Pignard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 67% | 63% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.75 | fair |
| Metz win | 13% | 16% | 7.50 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Metz −1.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace −1.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 60% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 40% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Diego Moreira · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Gauthier Hein · Metz |
| 25' | 🟨 | Lucas Høgsberg · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 25' | 🟨 | Valentín Barco · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 39' | 🟨 | Sadibou Sané · Metz |
| 43' | ⚽ | Martial Godo · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 45' | 🟨 | Giorgi Tsitaishvili · Metz |
| 58' | 🟨 | Terry Yegbe · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| coach days | 170.00 | 170.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1727.11 | 1568.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.58 | -26.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.65 |
| league points | 24.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.60 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 14.83 | 13.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.63 | 0.19 |
| solidity v1 | 0.90 | -1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 21.96 | 25.55 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.90 | 0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 0.73 |